How I score distress signals across 15 NYC public datasets

Every off-market screen I run starts from the same premise: by the time a property is listed, the best buyers have already seen the distress coming in the public record. The signals are scattered across fifteen datasets that don’t share IDs, formats, or update cadences — which is exactly why they still carry alpha.

The signal families

Debt stress. ACRIS mortgage records give you origination dates and lenders; pair them with typical term structures and you get a maturity-wall estimate per property. UCC filings and lis pendens add sharper edges.

Weighting and validation

Signals are weighted by how often they preceded an actual sale in a five-year backtest, borough by borough. A lis pendens in the Bronx does not mean what it means in Manhattan.

What this looks like in practice

The quarterly report publishes the aggregate counts. Engagements get the ranked list with per-property evidence.